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In today’s edition, we run down the biggest headlines of the afternoon, examine the major (existential?) stakes of Abdul El-Sayed's Michigan primary win, and encourage you to drink as many cups of coffee as you can stomach. Have thoughts or feelings on what you read here? You can reach me directly by email. I’m at [email protected].

Caitlin Dewey, senior writer

The progressive populist Abdul El-Sayed won Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary on Tuesday — though the vote was so close that most outlets didn’t call the race until this morning.

It’s not exactly the resounding triumph progressives expected. In the lead-up to election day, El-Sayed’s campaign boasted of a “massive” polling lead over centrist Haley Stevens that they said definitively proved the mainstream appeal of his style of politics.

In reality, the takeaways from one of the midterms’ bitterest and most consequential races are probably more mixed. El-Sayed, an epidemiologist and former public health official who has championed policies like Medicare-for-all and an end to military aid for Israel, appeared to struggle in some of Michigan’s lower-income and less-educated districts.

That said, his win is still a very big deal, especially given the forces arrayed against him. Democratic heavyweights and big-money donors both threw their considerable weight behind Stevens.

The left's big swing-state test

The Democratic primary in Michigan centered on a lot of interesting issues: money in politics, a whole bunch of -isms, and the role of “the establishment,” to name just a few. But the upcoming general election will test one question above all: Can a left-wing populist win over swing-state voters the way right-wing populists have been doing for years now?

We have some left-wing populists in office already, of course. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez both campaigned for El-Sayed this cycle. Progressives represent a number of cities and urban congressional districts. And over the past few months, the left wing of the Democratic party has notched some notable primary wins.

But all of these candidates have run to represent solidly Democratic communities, where winning the primary effectively meant winning the seat. An out-and-proud, Sanders-style, left-wing populist arguably has yet to prove that this platform can win a statewide general election in a state that isn’t deep-blue already.

That makes Michigan a high-stakes test. The state went for Trump in two of the past three presidential elections. Winning Michigan as a Democrat means cobbling together a coalition from a broad and varied range of constituencies, including Black Detroiters, swing suburbanites, college-town progressives, blue-collar union workers, and both Jewish and Muslim Americans.

“Michigan is like a microcosm of America,” one long-time political reporter in Detroit told my colleague Astead Herndon. If a left-wing populist can win there, in other words, the Democratic Party will really have to pay attention.

Beyond Michigan: Results are in from many of Tuesday’s other key primaries, including a Kansas referendum that would have changed how supreme court judges are chosen as part of a larger right-wing effort to undermine abortion.
Tariff refunds: The US returned about $100 billion in tariff income that was collected before the Supreme Court ruled President Donald Trump’s levies illegal.
On the podcast: There's a new Red Scare bubbling up in politics. Just how real is the communist threat? Listen to the whole thing here.

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➨ Have that second cup of coffee; there’s a strong case to be made for its health benefits. In contrast to other, highly publicized food studies of this genre — many of which are sponsored by industry groups — a number of large, rigorous, peer-reviewed studies have found that coffee reduces your risk of developing dementia, cirrhosis, and liver cancer.

Did you know…that for most people, physical fitness peaks around age 33? I wish I didn’t know that, but now that I do: Misery loves company!
Today’s trivia: What was the name of the Nickelodeon game show hosted by Marc Summers? (You can find this and other brain puzzles in Vox’s daily crossword. Look for the answer in tomorrow’s edition.)
Yesterday’s trivia: Yesterday, we asked you how many states have legalized marijuana. That would be 41, if you count medical use, and 24 if you do not.

Today’s edition was produced and edited by me, Caitlin Dewey. Thanks for reading!

Have thoughts or feelings on what you read here? You can reach me directly by email. I’m at [email protected].

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