TGIF, Money readers!

I'm in the middle of getting my house ready to sell, which means I've suddenly become very interested in what's happening in the housing market. 

The good news for buyers? Sellers are finally losing a little leverage. 

The good news for me? I live in a market where sellers still have the upper hand. 

Now if I could just finish all these last-minute house painting projects… — Kat Peach

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The Typical Home Now Sells for Below List Price in More Than 40 Major Cities

For the past few years, shopping for a home has felt a bit like showing up late to a sample sale: The best deals disappeared instantly, prices kept climbing and if you hesitated for even a minute, someone else swooped in with a higher offer.

Now the market is finally calming down.

A new analysis of Redfin data finds that homes are now selling below asking price in 41 of the nation's 50 largest housing markets, a sign that buyers are regaining some long-lost leverage. Nationwide, the typical home sells for about 1.7% less than its list price, and in places like Houston and Miami, buyers are scoring even steeper discounts. (Texas, especially, has become one of the friendliest markets for buyers, thanks to more price cuts, longer selling times and plenty of inventory to choose from.)

That doesn't mean we're suddenly in the glory days of affordable housing. Mortgage rates are still hovering above 6.5%, the median existing-home price just hit another record for June and starter homes costing $1 million are becoming increasingly common.

So yes, buyers can finally negotiate instead of panic-bidding. They're just negotiating over homes that still cost a small fortune. — KP

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TAKING A GAMBLE

New York State Sues Prediction Market Kalshi

Officials in New York state announced a lawsuit against the popular prediction market Kalshi on Friday, accusing it of running an “illegal, unlicensed gambling operation.” The state attorney general's office wants Kalshi to forfeit profits and pay restitution to its customers, as the Associated Press reported. 

Earlier this week, another state attempt to regulate prediction markets hit a setback: A federal judge paused the implementation of a ban on prediction markets in Minnesota. The ban had been set to take effect Saturday.

These two states join Arizona, Nevada and Utah in trying to put some regulatory guardrails around prediction markets. Nevada, home to the country's largest concentration of gambling businesses, has had the most success; its ban has survived legal challenges so far.

The explosive growth of platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, supercharged by this year’s FIFA World Cup, have transformed a once-esoteric corner of the financial derivatives market. Millions of people now spend billions of dollars using options contracts to place bets on the outcome of real-world events, from sports scores to elections to the weather. 

Federal agencies have joined the industry in fighting state regulatory efforts. Their claim: Prediction markets are governed by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and not subject to state oversight. Conversely, attorneys general from 44 states sent a letter earlier this week to the CFTC arguing that sports-related contracts should be regulated as sports gambling, which is handled at the state level. 

This debate is unlikely to be settled anytime soon. As for which side will ultimately win this tug of war — well, you could probably use a prediction market to bet on it. — Martha C. White

In the newsroom, our editors are talking about...

LONG LIVE THE KING

Yes, People Still Use Cash — a Lot More Than You'd Expect

In a typical month, consumers report making 47 payments, including 16 with credit cards, 15 with debit cards and six with cash.

Money; Getty Images

For the average person, investing in passive index funds is wise. It provides broad exposure and lowers your portfolio’s volatility. Warren Buffett has been preaching that for decades, and for the most part, it’s worked. 

But as AI growth continues to dominate the market narrative, funds tracking the major indices have become increasingly concentrated. The 10 largest companies in the S&P 500 now account for 36% of the index. For the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100, that number increases to 46%. 

It’s worse in South Korea, where just two AI stocks — Samsung and SK Hynix — account for about 60% of that country’s benchmark KOSPI index, which recently entered a bear market after crashing 39% from its 2026 high through Thursday following a sell-off of those two stocks. 

That demonstrates the power of concentration risk. Index funds still provide diversification, but the degree of that diversification is eroding. Last week, I spoke with Gina Martin Adams, chief market strategist at HB Wealth, about how you can protect your portfolio. — Jordan Chussler

This issue of Daily Money was written by associate editor Kat Peach, reporter Martha C. White and investing editor Jordan Chussler. It was edited by managing editor Julia Glum. Questions? Comments? Concerns? Please email [email protected] with any feedback.